The last six NHL entry drafts have all had a pretty fair amount of certainty at the top. In 2015, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel were possibly the easiest 1-2 decisions in NHL history. Auston Matthews was the easy choice for Toronto in 2016. There was some question about Nico vs Nolan back in 2017, but by the time the draft rolled around, it was pretty clear that Nico Hischier was the worthy #1 pick. The last three drafts have featured consensus top picks Rasmus Dahlin (2018), Jack Hughes (NJD) and Alexis Lafreniere (NYR). And while there’s no consensus right now on who the top prospect is for the 2021 entry draft, there’s one player that has stood out to me above the rest all year: Luke Hughes.
After older brothers Quinn and Jack were taken 7th and 1st in 2018 and 2019, respectively, the final brother in the Hughes trilogy has the size that his brothers lack (6’2” compared to 5’10” for both Jack and Quinn) and the same incredible skating ability that has them on the trajectory of being elite NHL players. Notice how smooth his stride is as he skates the puck up ice and his agility to move around the defender and break to the net.
And how quick he is changing directions to beat the defender wide:
With the puck, Hughes is able to go coast-to-coast and generate dangerous scoring chances for his team. Without the puck, he uses his long strides to get back and play strong defense. This clip is a perfect example of both of those, as he sets up a high-danger chance by circling the net and then is the first player back to shut down the potential breakaway.
He’s able to cover so much ice in a short amount of time with his long strides and utilizes that 6’2” frame with a long reach. Hughes’s skating ability allows him to be an elite transition defender. He’s able to force plays wide by staying in the middle of the ice and has the ability to close on an attacking player quickly.
After he knocks the puck off of the attacker’s stick, he’s so quick to gain possession and avoid the opposition trying to hunt down the puck. His high-end agility allows for him to escape the oncoming pressure and find his defense partner for a clean breakout. Plays like this don’t show up on the scoresheet often, but they’re often the difference between winning and losing close games.
He closes on attackers so quickly that he can make a bee-line for the puck and break up the play in plenty of time.
Turning that strong defense into offense is critical in the modern day NHL, and Luke might be the best in this draft class at creating transition offense. In the clip below, Luke avoids two incoming forecheckers and delivers a perfect stretch pass leading to a goal.
Another important aspect of this play is how well he recognized the time and space he had while going back for the puck. If Hughes turns back around as soon as he retrieves the puck, the F1 on the forecheck will be able to cut him off on the boards. Instead, he continues moving towards his own goal line, baits F1 into covering the D-to-D pass and then makes his move. At this point, he’s created a one-on-one with F2, and Luke is going to win that matchup nine times out of ten. After beating F2, he sends a beautiful pass to set up a 3-on-2 for his team. Not only does he deliver the breakout pass, but by avoiding the two oncoming forecheckers, he created the odd man rush the other way.
This is an area of drastic improvement for Hughes. When watching him last year with the Under-17 team, it looked as if he was a bit jumpy and panicking with the puck while under pressure. The progress he’s made with his poise is an incredible sign of maturity for such a young player.
His understanding of the game (and his teammates) is exceptional. After recognizing the chance to catch the opposition in a change, see how he times his drop pass in accordance with the player breaking to the net, knowing that he’s the prime scoring threat on the play.
If Hughes waits any longer to make the drop pass, the eventual goal scorer wouldn’t be in a scoring position by the time the puck got to him. If he makes the pass any sooner, the defender in the middle would have had a chance to disrupt the play.
As far as his shot goes, it’s nothing special for a defenseman but it’s effective in the areas it needs to be. He’s got a hard slapshot and one-timer from the point:
He can release the puck quickly and get it to the net:
And can change the angle at the point to get a better look at the net:
While I was writing up this piece, I realized I didn’t have any clips of Hughes defending the cycle, so I went back and watched a few more games to find some of those clips. It was then that I came to understand just how much his team dominates the puck when Hughes is on the ice. Whenever the opposition gets the puck, they usually have to dump it down due to how long they just had to defend in their own end. It’s an awesome sign to see just how much Hughes and his team are controlling the play when he’s on the ice, and it’s obvious that Luke is a main reason why.
As with any prospect, it’s not all perfect with Hughes. There were a handful of high danger chances that he missed the net completely on and on the rare occasion that he has to defend the cycle, he doesn’t play the body as often as I’d like to see (similar to Jamie Drysdale last year), but I’d expect the latter to come along as he puts more muscle on his frame. The player he’ll be most compared to this year, Owen Power of the University of Michigan, is close to a full year older than Luke (Power was born in November 2002, Hughes in September 2003). This just shows how raw a player Hughes is and how much room there is for his game to grow even more as time goes on.
I’m not huge on player comparisons, but there are obvious similarities between Luke Hughes and Miro Heiskanen. The incredible skating ability and instincts are there with both of them, and I can totally see Hughes being a top defenseman just like Heiskanen. Luke is my current #1 prospect for the 2021 NHL Draft, and in my opinion, he should be getting a lot more consideration for the top spot than he is right now.
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